The voice of the not-so-silent majority

Friday 22 February 2008

Why a vote for Papadopoulos is really a vote for Turkey


ALKAN CHAGLAR
Five years ago while standing as a candidate for President and Negotiator, Tassos Papadopoulos promised a ‘good deal’ for Greek Cypriots. Five years on Mr Papadopoulos has only ever met the Turkish Cypriot leader Mr Talat twice, has succeeding in isolating the Republic of Cyprus within the EU, strained relations with guarantor Britain, while the island remains divided with a 0% change in Turkish policy. Meanwhile the north is becoming more and more populated by settlers from Turkey, with business booming based on the sale of Greek Cypriot properties and with EU countries like the UK and Germany actually talking about establishing direct trade with the TRNC. With historic elections literally around the corner, it is important for Cypriot voters to ask: “Who is Mr Papadopoulos’ presidency benefitting exactly?”


RISKY WAITING GAME
Tassos Papadopoulos was first elected President of the Republic of Cyprus after an outright victory in the Presidential Elections on 16 February 2003. Winning 51.51% of the first round, Papadopoulos was chosen at a critical time in Cyprus' history. It was a time when Turkish Cypriots marched on the streets of Nicosia to stand up against 40 years of partitionist policies by Rauf Denktash, a leader who had dominated Turkish Cypriot politics for decades. The first time Turkish and Greek Cypriots spoke of reunification, according to …it was a popular uprising which brought the plight the Cypriots to the attention of the world media. Led by young Cypriots, it was the closest Cyprus came to reunification but to many Turkish Cypriots Papadopoulos as their president too did not acknowledge their courageousness and open defiance of an occupation, but pushed their hand of friendship away.
A year later in Burgenstock, Switzerland before the 24 April referendums, Papadopoulos made no effort to secure the best interests of his Greek Cypriot community as a leader of that community or to prevent Turkey getting concessions that would trigger a Greek Cypriot OXI (No) vote. Instead he manipulated Greek Cypriots with crocodile tears by telling them that he would not exchange a state (the Republic of Cyprus) for a community. Misleading, was this not the aim of 33 years of negotiations? Holding on for a better deal, Mr. Papadopoulos suggested that 'doing away with an internationally recognised state exactly at the very moment it strengthens its political weight, with its accession to the European Union ' was politically unwise. Playing a risky waiting game, he waited for Cyprus to join the EU in May 2004 promising Greek Cypriots a 'better' deal later on.

PAPADOPOULOS' GREAT GAMBLE
So did Papadopoulos' great gamble succeed? Circumstances following Cyprus' EU accession- well a better question to ask perhaps is: Has the Republic of Cyprus been powerful and influential enough to pressure Turkey? My own thoughts dictate that Mr. Papadopoulos was naïve to assume that the EU would put pressure on Turkey. Turkey is an important British and American ally with the second largest army in NATO. In life and in politics, there is nothing worse than under-estimating your opponent. Often the result can be catastrophic. And it has. UK-Republic of Cyprus relations has struck an iceberg with the recent Strategic Partnership between Turkey and UK. There are rumours that the UK government is encouraging Turkish Cypriots to set up their own separate structures to lobby Westminster and counter the Greek Cypriots. The UK will soon establish direct trade with the TRNC, which may lead to a Taiwan model. The Papadopoulos Government has become increasingly isolated within the EU and all this has made not an inkling of difference to Turkey's EU bid. In fact Turkey has recently closed its second chapter for EU accession and has the support of the UK and numerous other countries. Greco-Turkish relations are the best they have ever been. And meanwhile in Cyprus, support by Turkish Cypriots for reunification is falling while the island remains militarised, divided and human rights issues unresolved for all Cypriots.

SEVERE CONSEQUENCES
As you can imagine Papadopoulos’ gambling habit has severe consequences for Cyprus. Does he really think he can actually take on Turkey, without the support of the US and the EU, particularly without Greece and Britain? Can Cypriots who desire a lasting peace afford to be isolated from the world? Surely, Cypriots need to build bridges where Turkey has built bridges, strengthen relations where Turkey has and even talk to Turkey directly. But Mr. Papadopoulos is not one for talking let alone action. When I quizzed some Turkish students visiting me from Ankara, I asked what they thought of Papadopoulos. I was expecting scorn for his media reputation for his “Turk bashing” past, but I was surprised to hear that they endorse his presidency. “I hope he wins,” said 25 year old Can, while another believed Papadopoulos had actually diverted attention away from Turkey who they believe now has the moral high ground in Cyprus for the first time. “We are making many in roads in getting recognition for the TRNC,” said 27 year old Fusun. Estate agents in northern Cyprus too have said that they are praying for a Papadopoulos win.


MEANWHILE…DEMOGRAPHICS?
Without a doubt Papadopoulos' procrastination and over legalistic attention to the prospect of an ideal settlement have offered Turkey plenty of free time and even support. Nobody, except a few Cypriots and non influential Cypriot watchers now questions the occupation; nobody questions the continued violation of human rights of all Cypriots, nor the apartheid they are forced to live in. But during this dangerous game, perhaps Mr. Papadopoulos’ greatest error, the demographic character of northern Cyprus is changing fast as settlers from Turkey are moving into northern Cyprus. Recently, Yeni Duzen and Afrika newspaper reported that some 50,000 settlers would be granted TRNC citizenship shortly. As the population in the north changes so too will prospects and future conditions to a peace deal? Unless Cyprus has a president who treats this development more seriously and acts fast, there is a very real possibility that there may be no Turkish Cypriots in north Cyprus with which any President of the Republic can talk to.

PAPADOPOULOS' FALSE SECURITY AND STABILITY
Lulling Greek Cypriots into false hopes of economic and political stability, Mr. Papadopoulos is thinking short term but not long term. Yes while the Republic has a per Capita income higher than Israel and most Eastern European countries and is in the Euro zone now, the national question remains unresolved. Cyprus' current economy may be strong but don't be fooled by this brief eerie silence? Cypriots are in the eye of the storm and still need to negotiate the tail of the storm. The island is still divided and the human rights of Cypriots violated. Do we like the sight of barricades, barbed wire and presence of heavily armed troops? Do we want our offspring to grow up in the same militarised island? Do we really think we can build a wall and forget Turkey?


DECISIVE VOTE FOR CYPRUS
Considering too Michael Moller's recent statement that the UN will not start a new process until Cypriots show that they want a solution, Mr Papadopoulos’ last years has given the impression that Greek Cypriots do not want a solution. Such a notion may have dangerous consequences for Cyprus. But what is clear is that whoever is elected, they and Mehmet Ali Talat need to do their homework together. Sunday's election and the one to follow are decisive as they will determine not only the future of the island as a whole, but the readiness of Greek Cypriots for a solution and the speed and feasibility of a solution. Although not a mandate for reunification, a vote for Papadopoulos is clearly what is needed in Ankara to keep delaying a solution while getting them off the hook regarding their obligations.

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